The Relationship Between Sectoral Employment and Real Sector Economic Confidence: Fourier Causation Analysis

Özet

Purpose – In order to ensure economic growth in the short term and economic development in the long term, it is important to evaluate the events occurring in the political and economic order correctly and to meet the expectations. This study was created to evaluate the effectiveness of economic confidence on the relevant sectors on a sectoral basis Design/Methodology/Approach – In this study, the relationship between the real sector economic confidence index and employment rates in industry, construction and services sectors will be analyzed. Turkey is selected as the sample and the data range subject to the analysis is determined as 2009:01-2023:08. In the study, the Fourier analysis method, which is among the new generation analysis methods, was applied, and Fractional Frequency Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test were applied. Findings – As a result of the application, a one-way causality relationship from the real sector economic confidence index to building and industry sector employment was determined. A recommendation should be made regarding the necessity of making political arrangements that will maintain the stability level of employment in the relevant sector. Discussion – In line with the data obtained in this study, the fact that real economic confidence has an effect on employment in the construction and industrial sectors, in addition to the fact that sectoral employment has no effect on the real economic confidence index, can be linked to the fact that sectoral leaders pursue a policy of contraction or expansion within the framework of expectations.