Analyzing Electricity Market via System Dynamics Modelling

Abstract

Purpose – In this study, the System Dynamics Model (SDM) was developed for modeling Turkey's electricity market via Vensim PLE. The system dynamics model is a suitable approach for modeling such complexities. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics is a methodology based on feedback systems. System Dynamics was developed by Jay Wright Forrester. Forrester's methodology provides a basis for building computer models for complex and dynamic systems. Many software such as STELLA, VENSIM, POWERSIM are used in system dynamics modeling today. Findings – The behavior of the system between 2005 and 2030 has been examined thanks to developed SD model. First of all, the model was examined and the current situation was analyzed. When the current situation is examined, the model results are obtained in accordance with the actual values of the variables such as the actual electrical energy production, electrical energy consumption, CO2 emission, population. Comparative results regarding the current situation have been examined. Eight scenarios were developed following the current situation. After examining the current situation, eight scenario analyzes were conducted. In these scenarios, respectively, for scenario 1, the electrical energy loss and leakage rate is 5% as of 2013, for scenario 2 the electrical energy loss and leakage rate is 10% as of 2013, scenario 3 electrical energy loss and leakage rate is% as of 2013. 18, scenario 4 electricity loss and leakage rate is 30% as of 2013, scenario 5 population increase, scenario 6 population decrease, scenario 7 new power plants take an average of 3 years, scenario 8 electricity in industrial sector 15% increase in energy consumption has been examined. Discussion – When the results are examined; It can be said that the control of loss and leakage rates is very important. In addition, it is very important to plan the installation start times of new power plants that require a certain period of time. With the developed system dynamics model, different scenario situations can be examined and effective policies can be designed.