The Causality Relationship Between BIST Tourısm Index and BIST Transportatıon Index: Var Model - Toda Yamamoto Approach

Abstract

Purpose – In this research, the causal relationship between the BIST-TOURISM Index, which is the index containing the stocks of companies belonging to the tourism sector traded in Borsa Istanbul, and the BIST-TRANSPORTATION index, which is the index containing the stocks of companies belonging to the transportation sector, will be examined. No study has been found in the literature that directly focuses on the relationship between the two indices. In this study, the relationship between the two indices was tested specifically and with a different methodological approach in order to fill the gap in the literature. Desing/ methodology/approach – The observations used in the research consist of a total of 129 observations for each index in the form of monthly data, covering the periods between January 2013 and September 2023. The existence of a causality relationship between two indices was tested with the Toda-Yamamoto test, which is used to determine the causality relationship between the series. Findings – As a result of the study, it was concluded that the transportation index is the cause of the tourism index. In other words, this result can be considered as a sign that transportation has a significant impact on improvements in the tourism sector. Another finding obtained in the study is that the tourism index does not have a reason over the transportation index. Discussion – According to the results obtained in the research, a causal relationship from transportation to tourism was determined. Positive or negative developments in the transportation sector also have parallel consequences in the tourism sector. As stated by Tanrısevdi and Çulha (2011), there is a very close relationship between transportation and tourism, and the existence of this relationship causes both sectors to support each other.