Dynamics of Growth in BRICS-T Economies: The Role of Economic Complexity and Openness in Structural Transformation

Abstract

Purpose – This study analyzes the determinants of economic growth in the BRICS-T countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey) using data from the period 1995–2023. In particular, it examines the effects of economic complexity and trade openness on economic growth
Design/methodology/approach – The analysis employs the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous panels. In the first stage, the CD_LM test was applied to detect the presence of cross-sectional dependence. The test results confirmed the existence of cross-sectional dependence, necessitating the use of second-generation unit root testing methods. Accordingly, the Cross-sectionally Augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root test was conducted to determine the stationarity levels of the series. Following the unit root analysis, panel heterogeneity was confirmed through the Swamy test. Subsequently, the Westerlund cointegration test and the DCCE estimation method were employed.
Results – The results indicate that the dependent and independent variables move together in the long run, and both variables exert a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. The coefficient of the economic complexity variable is estimated at 1.33 and found to be significant at the 5% level. This finding suggests that a more complex and knowledge-intensive production structure fosters economic growth. The trade openness coefficient is estimated at 0.19 and is significant at the 1% level.
Discussion – Overall, the study demonstrates that ensuring sustainable economic growth in BRICS-T countries requires enhancing economic diversification and promoting trade openness. Increasing economic complexity—particularly by fostering knowledge- and technology-intensive production—emerges as a key driver of economic growth. Likewise, improving trade openness is likely to strengthen the contribution of international trade to economic growth.