(The Causality Relationship Between the Economic Confidence Index and Investment Instruments: The Toda-Yamamoto Approach)

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causality between the economic confidence index and investment instruments. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, using the monthly data for January 2007-June 2019 period, the existence and direction of the relationship between the economic confidence index and BIST 100, USD/TL exchange rate and gold prices is examined by Toda-Yamamoto approach. Findings: As a result of the study, it is determined that there is no causality relationship from BİST100 index to economic confidence index and there is a one way relationship from BİST100 index to economic confidence index. Conversely, while the one-way causality relationship is observed from USD / TL exchange rate to economic confidence index, it is observed that there is no causality relationship between gold prices and economic confidence index. Discussion – The economic confidence index provides important information about the evaluations and expectations of both consumers and producers regarding the economic situation and is considered as an important leading indicator. The findings of the study suggest that the economic confidence index can be used as an indicator to predict fluctuations in the BIST100 index, but it cannot be used as a predictor for predicting changes in gold prices and USD / TL exchange rates. In addition, changes in the USD / TL exchange rate play an important role in the expectations and evaluations of producers and consumers regarding the economic outlook.