(Demand Forecast in Health İnstitutions: Application on Surgical Gauze)

Abstract

Purpose – For effective and efficient use of scarce resources, by using appropriate methods is required accurate estimation. There is no compensation for the lack of resources in health. In the study, by using quantitative estimation methods in surgical gauze consumption in the intensive care unit of Gazi University were estimated how much it will be consumed for future periods. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, moving average, exponential smoothing, Winters Holt- and linear regression forecasting methods that are demand estimate have been used. Mean Absolute Percent Error(MAPE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) have been used for the measurement of the accuracy of forecast results. Findings – As a result of the comparison between methods, the error rate was found to be the least in the moving average method. Discussion – Since the cost of medical equipment is high in hospital expenses, the profitability of hospital can be increased and waste can be prevented by estimating the right amount of material at the right time.