Delphi Application in a Scenario Planning Study on Uncertainties Affecting Company Strategies in the LNG Industry

Abstract

Purpose- Liquefied natural gas (LNG, Liquified Natural Gas) is an energy source and natural gas transportation method whose importance has increased in recent years. The increasing importance of LNG and variable environmental factors make it difficult to make decisions and plan in the LNG sector. In such multivariate markets, scenario planning is one of the methods used to make long-term planning. In scenario planning method, it tries to create predicted scenarios based on uncertainties. With the help of scenarios, it is tried to create a strategy for plausible future conditions. In this study, it is to determine the uncertainties in the sector for the future for the LNG Sector and possible strategy. Design/methodology/approach – The scope of the study is the LNG sector, in this context, interviews were conducted with 12 experts in the sector based on the delphi method. The Delphi method was designed with two legs. In the first leg, discussions were made on the uncertainties in the sector using the zoom (2.06) program, and in the second step, these uncertainties were asked to be scored 1-10. Uncertainties are listed as a result of the scoring. Findings: After the interviews with the experts, 53 uncertainties were determined in the part of PESTEL analysis political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental and legal environmental factors. Uncertainties that stand out according to experts at the end after the second leg of the delphi method were urbanization, currency changes, population growth rate and unions. Discussion: The prominent uncertainties are generally compatible with the literature, and it will be beneficial for the decision makers to consider these uncertainties in future planning in the sector.