Analysis of Tourism Demand for Türkiye with Gravity Model: The Case of OECD Countries

Abstract

Purpose – The study aims to analyze the factors affecting the tourism demand for Türkiye from OECD countries together with the crisis variables affecting Turkey. By determining the factors in tourism demand, it is expected to develop strategies to increase tourism d emand in terms of quantity and quality. Design/methodology/approach – In the study, to determine the effects of selected variables (population, GDP, price, distance, crisis, visa, and being a tourism country) on tourism demand, the Extended Gravity Model was established. The model assumes that foreign trade between countries is positively affected by economic size and negatively affected by distance. System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) was employed to test the research model. System GMM is a dynamic panel data analysis method that allows the examination of the long long-run relationships of variables. Results – By testing the research model, it was found that tourism demand from OECD countries to Türkiye is positively affected by economic size, negatively by distance, positively by prices, and negatively by crises. On the other hand, the variables of population, visa, and being a tourism country have no statistically significant effect on tourism demand. Discussion – While the increase in the economic size of OECD countries increases the tourism demand for Türkiye, which can be explained by the positive relationship between income and demand, the decrease in demand due to the increase in distance between the two countries can be explained by the negative effects of distance on transportation cost and time. In addition, the positive effect of price increases on demand in OECD countries causes touris ts to create demand for Türkiye, which is relatively cheaper due to the decrease in purchasing power. The negative impact of crises on tourism demand, such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks, including global economic crises, can be explained by th the shrinking global demand and that the country is perceived as unsafe for tourists.