Granger Causality Analysis Between International Competitiveness and Tourism: Empirical Evaluation on Turkey

Abstract

Purpose – One of the competitive sectors that has an increasing importance in the world economies in terms of international service trade is the tourism sector. In this context, the aim of the study is to investigate the international competitiveness of the tourism sector in Turkey. Desing/ methodology/approach – A model was established with the independent variables of productivity, real exchange rate, human development index, number of domestic-foreign patents, and R&D expenditures, with the dependent variable being the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA). Granger causality test was performed using annual data for the period 1990-2024. Findings – According to the findings, the real exchange rate affects the comparative advantage of the tourism sector, but is not affected by the comparative advantage of the sector. R&D expenditures, number of domestic-foreign patent applications, and human development index both affect the comparative advantage of the tourism sector and are affected by the comparative advantage of the sector. When the results for the dependent variable RCA are evaluated; At a significance level of 5 percent, both the Human Development Index (HDI) is the cause of Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) and Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) are the cause of the Human Development Index (HDI). Similarly, at a significance level of 5 percent, the Number of Domestic-Foreign Patent Applications (NCPA) is the cause of Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) and Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) are the cause of the Number of Domestic-Foreign Patent Applications (NCPA). On the other hand, at a significance level of 5 percent, there is a one-way causal relationship between Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) and R&D expenditure, from RCA to R&D expenditure. Discussion – When the literature is considered, it is striking that researchers and managers focus on descriptive studies by focusing on destination management theory, and the scarcity of empirical analyses. In this context, empirically testing the causality relationship between the international competitiveness of the Turkish tourism sector and the factors affecting its competitiveness will make this study original in the literature.