Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Stock Price: BIST Bank Index Example

Abstract

Purpose – In this study, the effect of macroeconomic factors; such as the impact of Dollar Rate, Ounce Gold, Interest Rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2010 and 2022 on the stock prices of banks, which are the locomotives of the financial sector, was investigated.
Design/methodology/approach – Panel data analysis used in the research.
Results – According to the findings obtained, it was determined that the model was statistically significant, and the explanatory power of the independent variables used in the model on the dependent variable was 15 percent. It was identified that interest, which is one of the independent variables of the study, did not have a statistically significant effect on bank stock prices; however, while gross domestic product and gold's explanation of stock prices was significant and positive at the five percent significance level, the dollar exchange rate was significant but negative. Among these variables, when GDP increases by one unit, an increase in the stock prices was observed by 2.65 units, while when gold price increases by one unit, stock prices increase by 1.49 units. On the other hand, when the dollar exchange rate increases by one unit, stock prices decrease by 3.45 units.
Discussion – As a result, macroeconomic variables are effective in stock prices, so this study is expected to assist capital market investors to predict stock price movements based on data in their long-term investments, as well as it is envisaged that researchers to investigate the effect of different variables on the stocks of companies in other sectors.